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6

Little Ted

9yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 51

Newcastle · Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap · 1m 5y

#2

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has benefited from the fitting of a hood on his last 3 starts, runner-up twice before getting back to winning ways in apprentice event at Hamilton 10 days ago. Escapes a penalty for that success so he's a major player.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Musselburgh 06/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 50 · 1m2y Gd 132 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 50 par6/066OR 506 @ Beverley 16/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 50 · 1m100y Goo 130 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Newcastle 25/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 50 · 1m5y Sta 133 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 50 par25/066OR 506 @ Leicester 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 52 · 1m53y GF 134 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 53 · 1m5y Sta 133 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 53 par25/076OR 536 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 52 · 1m1f170y Goo 132 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Ripon 31/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 50 · 1m1f170y Sft 135 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 50 par31/086OR 505 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 49 · 1m Sft 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Hamilton 21/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 49 · 1m68y Sft 129 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 49 par21/096OR 49projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Hamilton61st1st0
2026-09-18Ayr52nd1st+1
2026-08-31Ripon62nd2nd0
2026-08-15Ripon64th4th0
2026-07-25Newcastle66th6th0
2026-07-04Leicester62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/064/0731/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.6% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/06/20262nd10/382%90%+0.08
16/06/20267th4/179%14%-0.65
25/06/20262nd5/174%92%+0.18
04/07/20262nd11/893%88%-0.05
25/07/20266th4/179%55%-0.24
15/08/20264th9/153%75%+0.22
31/08/20262nd11/486%89%+0.03
18/09/20262nd16/116%86%+0.70
21/09/20261st1/195%100%+0.05