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5

Rogue Officer

4yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 52

Newcastle · Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap · 1m 5y

#7

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains a maiden but came as close as he has ever done to winning when ½-length second at Wolverhampton (8.5f) in August. Ran to a similar level when 3¾ lengths fifth of 12 over the same C&D 16 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Chelmsford City 28/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 60 · 7f Std 131 · beat its mark28/08/2025 · OR 60 par28/086OR 606 @ Chelmsford City 18/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 60 · 1m Std 133 · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 60 par6 @ Yarmouth 13/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 59 · 1m3y GS 132 · beat its mark13/10/2025 · OR 59 par13/106OR 596 @ Newcastle 20/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 62 · 1m5y Std 132 · below its mark20/01/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Southwell 05/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 61 · 7f14y Std 131 · below its mark05/02/2026 · OR 61 par5/026OR 616 @ Nottingham 08/04/2026 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 59 · 1m75y Goo 129 · below its mark08/04/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 56 · 7f14y Sta 133 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 56 par31/076OR 566 @ Wolverhampton 26/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 52 · 1m142y Std 130 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Wolverhampton 15/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 53 · 1m142y Std 133 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 53 par15/096OR 53projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Wolverhampton65th5th0
2026-08-26Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-07-31Newcastle66th6th0
2026-04-08Nottingham615th15th0
2026-02-05Southwell610th10th0
2026-01-20Newcastle69th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0820/0131/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/08/20252nd17/255%83%+0.28
18/09/20255th9/276%43%-0.33
13/10/20252nd14/126%92%+0.66
20/01/20269th50/10%11%+0.11
05/02/202610th80/10%0%0.00
08/04/202615th80/10%0%0.00
31/07/20266th28/10%38%+0.38
26/08/20262nd50/10%91%+0.91
15/09/20265th16/116%64%+0.48