10
Horndean
2yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 72
Nottingham · Racedays For 9 Pound At Nottingham Racecourse Nursery · 6f 18y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Lingfield | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-17 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-15 | Yarmouth | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Windsor | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength21%
Delivery trend -22.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 17/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 44% | -0.35 |
| 10/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 91% | +0.07 |