IvyArcIvyArc
1

Pride Of Toledo

2yo Colt · 9-9 · OR 85

Nottingham · Racedays For 9 Pound At Nottingham Racecourse Nursery · 6f 18y

#7

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won a 6f Salisbury novice in July. Acquitted himself well when fourth in a valuable sales race at York next time. Not in quite the same form when fifth of 15 on 6f Doncaster nursery since but the fact he went off favourite suggests he's thought to be on a good mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 02/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 6f GF 1282/0744 @ Salisbury 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR - · 6f Goo 13325/0742 @ York 20/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 20 · OR - · 6f GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS20/0824 @ Doncaster 11/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 85 · 6f2y Goo 135 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 85 par11/094OR 85projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Doncaster45th5th0
2026-08-20York24th2nd+2
2026-07-25Salisbury41st1st0
2026-07-02Newbury45th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0725/0720/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/07/20265th11/271%56%-0.15
25/07/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
20/08/20264th28/10%84%+0.84
11/09/20265th3/184%71%-0.13