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5

Tumishi

2yo Colt · 9-3 · OR 79

Nottingham · Racedays For 9 Pound At Nottingham Racecourse Nursery · 6f 18y

#1

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

80%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Overcame trouble in running to narrowly get off the mark in 6f Ffos Las maiden (good to firm) in August and made a sound enough start to his nursery career when seventh (Pride of Toledo fifth) of 15 at Doncaster St Leger meeting.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Nottingham 03/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 6f18y Goo 1333/0642 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS25/0724 @ Ffos Las 27/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 77 · 6f Gd 133 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 77 par27/084OR 774 @ Doncaster 11/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 80 · 6f2y Goo 130 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 80 par11/094OR 80projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Doncaster47th7th0
2026-08-27Ffos Las41st1st0
2026-07-25Ascot23rd1st+2
2026-06-03Nottingham44th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0625/0727/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength44%

Delivery trend -3.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/06/20264th11/142%73%+0.31
25/07/20263rd13/266%75%+0.09
27/08/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
11/09/20267th12/137%57%+0.20