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4

Undercover Affair

2yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 79

Nottingham · Racedays For 9 Pound At Nottingham Racecourse Nursery · 6f 18y

#2

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#2

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Registered a second win in 3-runner Windsor nursery in July but has found things harder since, running poorly at Sandown when last seen 5 weeks ago. Bounce back needed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 6f17y Gd 13030/0543 @ Goodwood 07/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 5f Sft 127 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR - · 6f Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS12/0634 @ Redcar 20/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 5f Gd 1334 @ Nottingham 02/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 78 · 5f8y Goo 133 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 78 par2/074OR 784 @ Windsor 13/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 79 · 5f21y GF 130 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 79 par1 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 82 · 5f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 82 par29/071OR 823 @ Haydock 07/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 82 · 5f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Sandown 28/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 81 · 5f10y Gd 131 · below its mark28/08/2026 · OR 81 par28/084OR 81projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Sandown47th7th0
2026-08-07Haydock35th4th+1
2026-07-29Goodwood18th4th+3
2026-07-13Windsor41st1st0
2026-07-02Nottingham43rd3rd0
2026-06-20Redcar42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0520/0629/0728/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/05/20262nd5/493%91%-0.03
07/06/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
12/06/20264th7/282%79%-0.03
20/06/20262nd6/492%80%-0.12
02/07/20263rd5/287%67%-0.20
13/07/20261st85/4089%100%+0.11
29/07/20268th33/10%30%+0.30
07/08/20265th9/276%0%-0.76
28/08/20267th11/271%14%-0.57