7
Assured
5yo Mare · 9-2 · OR 47
Nottingham · Watch Racing TV Handicap · 2m 1f 208y
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Nottingham | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Bath | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Bath | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Beverley | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Bath | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Bath | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 10-12 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2024 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 11/10/2024 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 29/04/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 30/09/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 09/10/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 45% | -0.02 |
| 04/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 22/05/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/07/2026 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/08/2026 | 5th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |