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8

Corsican Caper

6yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 47

Nottingham · Watch Racing TV Handicap · 2m 1f 208y

#3

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

19%

Place Prob

19%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won a handicap hurdle in May then was third at Bath in June back on the Flat, before well-beaten fifth of 12 at Chester 20 days ago in a higher grade on return from 3 months off. Probably vulnerable to younger legs but is a proven stayer and comes here fresher than most.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength92%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 22/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 51 · 2m120y Std 131 · below its mark22/12/2025 · OR 51 par22/126OR 514 @ Uttoxeter 24/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 1m7f168y Sft 162 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Chelmsford City 08/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 49 · 1m6f Std 127 · beat its mark08/02/2026 · OR 49 par8/026OR 494 @ Doncaster 13/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR - · 2m128y GS 159 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Taunton 09/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 2m104y Gd 156 · HIGHER CLASS9/0443 @ Uttoxeter 02/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 97 · 2m3f207y Gd 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 97 par5 @ Uttoxeter 24/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 97 · 2m7f70y Gd 163 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/05/2026 · OR 97 par24/055OR 976 @ Bath 13/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 48 · 2m1f24y Goo 131 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 48 par5 @ Chester 11/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 47 · 1m7f196y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 47 par11/095OR 47projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Chester55th4th+1
2026-06-13Bath63rd3rd0
2026-05-24Uttoxeter51st0th+1
2026-05-02Uttoxeter33rd-1th+3
2026-04-09Taunton44th2nd+2
2026-03-13Doncaster43rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/1213/0324/0511/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength68%

Delivery trend -4.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/12/20259th25/10%0%0.00
24/01/20267th125/10%54%+0.54
08/02/20264th28/10%50%+0.50
13/03/20263rd33/10%33%+0.33
09/04/20264th66/10%50%+0.50
02/05/20263rd25/10%71%+0.71
24/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
13/06/20263rd7/491%71%-0.19
11/09/20265th5/174%64%-0.10