IvyArcIvyArc
3

Damzon

7yo Mare · 9-7 · OR 52

Nottingham · Watch Racing TV Handicap · 2m 1f 208y

#8

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#8

★ Timeform

Commentary

Seen to maximum effect when winning by a wide margin over 13f at Chelmsford in January but failed to confirm that form in 3 subsequent runs. Returns from a 217-day absence facing a step back up in trip and having a rare outing on turf so she's best watched.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 04/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 51 · 1m4f51y Std 133 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 51 par4/106OR 516 @ Southwell 03/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 50 · 2m102y Std 130 · beat its mark03/11/2025 · OR 50 par5 @ Wolverhampton 24/11/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 49 · 1m5f219y Std 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/11/2025 · OR 49 par24/115OR 496 @ Wolverhampton 06/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 48 · 2m120y Std 128 · beat its mark06/12/2025 · OR 48 par6 @ Wolverhampton 22/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 49 · 2m120y Std 129 · beat its mark22/12/2025 · OR 49 par22/126OR 496 @ Chelmsford City 08/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 48 · 1m5f66y Std 128 · beat its mark08/01/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Wolverhampton 16/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 55 · 1m4f51y Std 139 · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 55 par16/016OR 556 @ Southwell 07/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 55 · 1m6f21y Std 135 · beat its mark07/02/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Chelmsford City 26/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 54 · 1m6f Std 129 · beat its mark26/02/2026 · OR 54 par26/026OR 54projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-02-26Chelmsford City65th5th0
2026-02-07Southwell63rd3rd0
2026-01-16Wolverhampton64th4th0
2026-01-08Chelmsford City61st1st0
2025-12-22Wolverhampton65th5th0
2025-12-06Wolverhampton62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/106/1216/0126/02
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength51%

Delivery trend -2.7% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/20258th9/276%13%-0.64
03/11/20254th22/10%67%+0.67
24/11/202511th50/10%9%+0.09
06/12/20252nd20/10%90%+0.90
22/12/20255th9/276%50%-0.26
08/01/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
16/01/20264th3/184%63%-0.22
07/02/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38
26/02/20265th10/382%33%-0.49