N'ion

3yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 45

Nottingham · Watch Racing TV Handicap · 2m 1f 208y

#12

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark

Move▬

Strength40%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 8.3)

Highest class: 4

Recent avg: C5.3

Today: 6

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-26	Wolverhampton	6	11th	11th	0	1.0
2026-08-04	Catterick	6	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-07-23	Southwell	6	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-05-23	Windsor	6	14th	14th	0	1.0
2026-04-16	Ripon	4	6th	4th	+2	6.4
2026-03-23	Wolverhampton	4	5th	3rd	+2	7.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▬

Strength15%

Delivery trend +0.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 12.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
02/03/2026	8th	40/1	0%	13%	+0.13
23/03/2026	5th	200/1	0%	0%	0.00
16/04/2026	6th	200/1	0%	17%	+0.17
23/05/2026	14th	66/1	0%	0%	0.00
23/07/2026	8th	100/1	0%	22%	+0.22
04/08/2026	6th	50/1	0%	29%	+0.29
26/08/2026	11th	66/1	0%	0%	0.00