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9

Sir Griflet

3yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 54

Nottingham · Watch Racing TV Handicap · 2m 1f 208y

#6

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden who came third over 2m at Lingfield in September but hasn't been in the same form either start since, including in a change of headgear last time (now removed). Needs to bounce back but stable has been amongst the winners recently.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Windsor 18/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 68 · 1m3f99y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 68 par18/055OR 686 @ Wolverhampton 02/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 60 · 1m4f51y Std 135 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Nottingham 11/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 60 · 1m6f Sft 132 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 60 par11/066OR 604 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 58 · 1m3f211y GF 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Wolverhampton 30/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 58 · 1m4f51y Std 133 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 58 par30/076OR 586 @ Lingfield 08/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 55 · 1m7f169y Std 127 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Lingfield 03/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 55 · 1m7f169y Std 126 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 55 par3/096OR 555 @ Chester 11/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 55 · 1m7f196y Goo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Southwell 22/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 54 · 2m102y Std 127 · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 54 par22/096OR 54projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Southwell66th6th0
2026-09-11Chester53rd2nd+1
2026-09-03Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-08-08Lingfield64th4th0
2026-07-30Wolverhampton612th12th0
2026-07-25Ascot410th8th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0525/073/0922/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength59%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/05/20266th50/10%17%+0.17
02/06/20264th11/142%57%+0.15
11/06/20266th10/382%29%-0.54
25/07/202610th50/10%36%+0.36
30/07/202612th15/261%0%-0.61
08/08/20264th25/10%67%+0.67
03/09/20263rd3/184%60%-0.24
11/09/20263rd10/147%82%+0.34
22/09/20266th7/282%38%-0.44