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Urban Warrior

4yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 57

Nottingham · Watch Racing TV Handicap · 2m 1f 208y

#5

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made all to get off the mark in handicap at Yarmouth over 1¾m in first-time cheekpieces in August. Didn't improve any further for the step up to 2m when fifth of 8 at Kempton last time, but not without hope if getting his way out in front.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength70%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Leicester 26/04/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 1m2f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS26/0455 @ Kempton 10/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 1m Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Kempton 03/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 1m Sta 131 · HIGHER CLASS3/1146 @ Wolverhampton 12/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 59 · 1m5f219y Std 134 · beat its mark12/01/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Yarmouth 20/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 58 · 1m2f23y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 58 par20/055OR 586 @ Yarmouth 10/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 56 · 1m6f17y Sft 131 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Southwell 23/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 55 · 1m4f14y Std 135 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 55 par23/076OR 556 @ Yarmouth 05/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 54 · 1m6f17y GF 134 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 54 par5 @ Kempton 04/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 57 · 1m7f218y Sta 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 57 par4/095OR 57projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Kempton55th4th+1
2026-08-05Yarmouth61st1st0
2026-07-23Southwell63rd3rd0
2026-06-10Yarmouth63rd3rd0
2026-05-20Yarmouth54th3rd+1
2026-01-12Wolverhampton64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0412/0123/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength65%

Delivery trend -3.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/04/202510th18/15%0%-0.05
10/10/20259th66/10%20%+0.20
03/11/20256th80/10%17%+0.17
12/01/20264th10/382%67%-0.16
20/05/20264th4/179%50%-0.29
10/06/20263rd5/287%75%-0.12
23/07/20263rd5/493%75%-0.18
05/08/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
04/09/20265th5/174%43%-0.31