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7

Thi Qar

2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 84

Nottingham · EBF Oh So Sharp Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 75y

#1

Rank

Odds

10/11

Win Prob

95%

Place Prob

77%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Mehmas filly who has shaped with plenty of encouragement when narrowly denied over 7f at Newmarket (good to firm) and Salisbury (good to soft) in recent weeks. Remains open to improvement and the one to beat.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 3
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 08/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 7f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS8/0822 @ Salisbury 03/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 6f213y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS3/092projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Salisbury22nd1st+1
2026-08-08Newmarket22nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 3-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength66%

Delivery trend -28.5% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/08/20262nd9/153%80%+0.27
03/09/20262nd5/287%86%-0.01