4
Caim
3yo Filly · 9-11 · OR 85
Nottingham · 9 Pound Racedays At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap · 1m 75y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength64%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Haydock | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | York | 2 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-05-26 | Leicester | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Newbury | 1 | 2nd | -2th | +3 |
| 2025-09-17 | Beverley | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength3%
Delivery trend -16.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 26/05/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 20/08/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 05/09/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 55% | -0.03 |