8
Eagle Bay
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 82
Nottingham · 9 Pound Racedays At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap · 1m 75y
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Chester | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Musselburgh | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Chester | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Thirsk | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Catterick | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 10-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -10.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 07/08/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 12/09/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |