IvyArcIvyArc
1

Empire Of Light

5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 85

Nottingham · 9 Pound Racedays At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap · 1m 75y

#7

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended 2025 with a win at Chester and picked up where he left off when shading tight finishes at Haydock (10.5f, good to firm) and Thirsk (1m, good to soft) in the spring. Has found things harder in big-field events at York since but may fare better in these slightly calmer waters.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Redcar 07/04/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 79 · 7f219y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/04/2025 · OR 79 par7/043OR 794 @ York 26/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 19 · OR 77 · 7f192y Goo 132 · beat its mark26/07/2025 · OR 77 par4 @ Haydock 04/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 75 · 1m2f42y Goo 137 · beat its mark04/09/2025 · OR 75 par4/094OR 755 @ Musselburgh 14/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 74 · 1m2y Goo 139 · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 74 par4 @ Chester 20/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 74 · 1m2f70y Hvy 136 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 74 par20/094OR 744 @ Haydock 25/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 78 · 1m2f100y Goo 128 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 78 par3 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 82 · 7f218y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 82 par16/053OR 824 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR 85 · 1m177y Goo 135 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 85 · 1m2f56y GS 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 85 par6/093OR 85projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06York310th9th+1
2026-06-13York415th15th0
2026-05-16Thirsk31st0th+1
2026-04-25Haydock41st1st0
2025-09-20Chester41st1st0
2025-09-14Musselburgh54th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0414/0916/056/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength45%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/04/202512th22/10%0%0.00
26/07/20259th22/10%56%+0.56
04/09/20255th12/137%69%+0.32
14/09/20254th11/486%50%-0.36
20/09/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
25/04/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
16/05/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
13/06/202615th12/137%7%-0.30
06/09/202610th33/10%36%+0.36