Phantom Watch
3yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 75
Nottingham · 9 Pound Racedays At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap · 1m 75y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Windsor | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Haydock | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Newmarket | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Newmarket | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-30 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-28 | Southwell | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/2025 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 20% | -0.70 |
| 29/10/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 29/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 28/12/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 30/01/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 83% | -0.13 |
| 08/08/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 14/09/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |