7
Rogue Defence
3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 84
Nottingham · 9 Pound Racedays At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap · 1m 75y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Lingfield | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Kempton | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Leicester | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Lingfield | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength96%
Delivery trend +6.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 64% | -0.13 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 10/09/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |