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9

The Sweet Escape

4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 76

Nottingham · 9 Pound Racedays At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap · 1m 75y

#2

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

10%

Place Prob

20%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D scorer on good to soft in April and recorded 3 more wins on good to firm over the summer. Has soft ground as a possible excuse for a below-par effort at Haydock last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Leicester 09/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 62 · 1m53y Goo 132 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 62 par9/056OR 625 @ Redcar 18/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 63 · 7f219y Goo 129 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Nottingham 31/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 62 · 1m75y Goo 122 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 62 par31/055OR 626 @ Hamilton 10/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 62 · 1m68y Goo 139 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Beverley 03/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 60 · 7f96y Goo 130 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 60 par3/076OR 605 @ Beverley 14/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 63 · 7f96y Goo 136 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 63 parBHA69 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 69 · 7f Yie 139 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 69 par1/0869OR 695 @ Newmarket 14/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 70 · 1m GF 131 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 70 par4 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 76 · 7f212y Sft 131 · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 76 par5/094OR 76projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Haydock410th10th0
2026-08-14Newmarket51st2nd−1
2026-08-01GalwayBHA692nd6th−3
2026-07-14Beverley51st2nd−1
2026-07-03Beverley61st3rd−2
2026-06-10Hamilton66th8th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0510/061/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength59%

Delivery trend +3.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/05/20262nd9/276%88%+0.11
18/05/20264th5/174%73%-0.01
31/05/20264th9/488%50%-0.38
10/06/20266th4/179%50%-0.29
03/07/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
14/07/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
01/08/20262nd13/266%92%+0.26
14/08/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
05/09/202610th20/10%18%+0.18