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6

We Dare To Dream

4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 82

Nottingham · 9 Pound Racedays At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap · 1m 75y

#8

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

On his last winning mark but absent since a below-par run over C&D just under a year ago so a watching brief is advised unless the betting suggests otherwise.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength58%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Musselburgh 19/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 82 · 1m2y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/04/2025 · OR 82 par19/043OR 824 @ Beverley 05/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 82 · 7f96y Goo 133 · beat its mark05/05/2025 · OR 82 par4 @ Newmarket 17/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 88 · 7f GF 138 · below its mark17/05/2025 · OR 88 par17/054OR 882 @ Musselburgh 07/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 87 · 1m208y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/06/2025 · OR 87 par3 @ Haydock 05/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 87 · 7f37y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 87 par5/073OR 873 @ Goodwood 31/07/2025 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 89 · 1m Hvy 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/07/2025 · OR 89 par2 @ York 22/08/2025 · Pos 16th of 17 · OR 88 · 7f192y Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 88 par22/082OR 883 @ Haydock 05/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 86 · 6f212y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2025 · OR 86 par4 @ Nottingham 08/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 85 · 1m75y GS 135 · below its mark08/10/2025 · OR 85 par8/104OR 85projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-10-08Nottingham410th10th0
2025-09-05Haydock36th5th+1
2025-08-22York216th14th+2
2025-07-31Goodwood312th11th+1
2025-07-05Haydock31st0th+1
2025-06-07Musselburgh23rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/047/0622/088/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 9-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/04/20252nd17/255%86%+0.30
05/05/20251st15/890%100%+0.10
17/05/20255th4/179%43%-0.36
07/06/20253rd11/142%71%+0.29
05/07/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
31/07/202512th12/137%21%-0.15
22/08/202516th66/10%6%+0.06
05/09/20256th10/147%50%+0.03
08/10/202510th7/163%0%-0.63