11
West Byfleet
3yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 74
Nottingham · 9 Pound Racedays At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap · 1m 75y
#11
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Lingfield | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Ffos Las | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Goodwood | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 4 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength22%
Delivery trend -24.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2026 | 14th | 80/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 64% | -0.05 |