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Celestias Comet

4yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 70

Nottingham · Hospitality At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap · 1m 2f 50y

#1

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

71%

Place Prob

57%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won readily over C&D in early July, coming from off a solid gallop. Ran no sort of race when seventh of 10 in a handicap at Sandown later that month but off 64 days since and should again get a good tempo to chase so could bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength58%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Kempton 05/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 1m Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS5/0935 @ Southwell 23/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 77 · 1m13y Std 128 · beat its mark23/09/2025 · OR 77 par1 @ Doncaster 08/11/2025 · Pos 18th of 18 · OR 77 · 1m2f43y Hvy 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 77 par8/111OR 774 @ Southwell 04/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 77 · 1m3f23y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/03/2026 · OR 77 par5 @ Kempton 30/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 75 · 1m Sta 135 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 75 par30/045OR 755 @ Lingfield 18/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 73 · 1m2f Goo 133 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Brighton 09/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 70 · 7f216y Gd 135 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 70 par9/065OR 705 @ Nottingham 04/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 68 · 1m2f50y Goo 135 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Sandown 29/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 71 · 1m1f209y Goo 140 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 71 par29/075OR 71projClass-projected finish: 4th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-29Sandown57th7th0
2026-07-04Nottingham51st1st0
2026-06-09Brighton55th5th0
2026-05-18Lingfield55th5th0
2026-04-30Kempton56th6th0
2026-03-04Southwell46th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/094/039/0629/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength9%

Delivery trend -1.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/09/20252nd4/179%89%+0.10
23/09/20251st4/1198%100%+0.02
08/11/202518th100/10%0%0.00
04/03/20266th5/174%0%-0.74
30/04/20266th12/137%44%+0.08
18/05/20265th13/266%43%-0.23
09/06/20265th11/271%64%-0.07
04/07/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
29/07/20267th8/158%33%-0.25