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12

Crimson Rambler

3yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 63

Nottingham · Hospitality At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap · 1m 2f 50y

#13

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won twice on all-weather in March and has produced several solid in-frame efforts on turf since, though last couple of outings haven't been so encouraging which tempers enthusiasm.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 09/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 55 · 1m142y Std 141 · beat its mark09/03/2026 · OR 55 par9/036OR 556 @ Wolverhampton 16/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 60 · 1m142y Std 141 · beat its mark16/03/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Nottingham 08/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 67 · 1m75y Goo 133 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 67 par8/045OR 675 @ Yarmouth 21/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 70 · 1m2f23y GF 135 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 70 par4 @ Sandown 28/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 69 · 1m Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 69 par28/054OR 695 @ Newmarket 19/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 68 · 1m Goo 133 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Nottingham 18/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 67 · 1m2f50y Goo 132 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 67 par18/075OR 675 @ Newmarket 31/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 66 · 1m GF 126 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 66 par6 @ Wolverhampton 07/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 64 · 1m1f104y Std 135 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 64 par7/096OR 64projClass-projected finish: 7th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Wolverhampton65th6th−1
2026-07-31Newmarket55th5th0
2026-07-18Nottingham52nd2nd0
2026-06-19Newmarket53rd3rd0
2026-05-28Sandown49th8th+1
2026-04-21Yarmouth53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0321/0418/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 2-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength48%

Delivery trend -0.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/03/20261st8/1397%100%+0.03
16/03/20264th2/189%67%-0.23
08/04/20262nd9/153%91%+0.38
21/04/20263rd8/158%75%+0.17
28/05/20269th40/10%27%+0.27
19/06/20263rd20/10%78%+0.78
18/07/20262nd4/179%50%-0.29
31/07/20265th17/255%33%-0.22
07/09/20265th11/142%60%+0.18