Crimson Road
5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 70
Nottingham · Hospitality At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap · 1m 2f 50y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Brighton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Chepstow | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Chepstow | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Nottingham | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Windsor | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Bath | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 30/10/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 08/12/2025 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 05/04/2026 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 07/05/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 02/07/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 63% | +0.07 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |