8
Expressionless
6yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 64
Nottingham · Hospitality At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap · 1m 2f 50y
#11
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Haydock | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Newmarket | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Yarmouth | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Lingfield | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Newbury | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Goodwood | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 12-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 08/05/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 18% | -0.40 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 12/06/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 13/07/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 20/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 04/09/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |