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7

Garden Oasis

11yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 66

Nottingham · Hospitality At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap · 1m 2f 50y

#9

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Veteran who has produced several placed efforts this year and, though mainly racing over 1m nowadays, he has won at this trip before and is well berthed to employ his usual front-running tactics. Far from certain to get his own way in a field of this size, but he merits respect from easing mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength72%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ayr 20/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 75 · 1m GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 75 par20/054OR 753 @ Ripon 28/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 75 · 1m1f170y Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Wetherby 15/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 74 · 1m Goo 140 · below its mark15/06/2026 · OR 74 par15/065OR 744 @ Pontefract 29/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 73 · 1m6y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Ripon 18/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 72 · 1m Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 72 par18/074OR 725 @ Pontefract 05/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 72 · 1m6y Goo 132 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 71 · 1m Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 71 par15/084OR 715 @ Ripon 01/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 70 · 1m Sft 140 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 70 par4 @ Pontefract 17/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 68 · 1m6y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 68 par17/094OR 68projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Pontefract45th4th+1
2026-09-01Ripon57th7th0
2026-08-15Ripon43rd2nd+1
2026-08-05Pontefract53rd3rd0
2026-07-18Ripon42nd1st+1
2026-06-29Pontefract44th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0529/0615/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength81%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/05/20263rd16/116%80%+0.64
28/05/20268th16/116%22%+0.06
15/06/20265th9/276%33%-0.43
29/06/20264th9/276%50%-0.26
18/07/20262nd10/382%83%+0.01
05/08/20263rd11/1094%60%-0.34
15/08/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62
01/09/20267th9/276%50%-0.26
17/09/20265th22/10%56%+0.56