14
Mohaab
3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 60
Nottingham · Hospitality At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap · 1m 2f 50y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Sandown | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Goodwood | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Kempton | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Windsor | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Windsor | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Nottingham | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength18%
Delivery trend -9.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 70% | +0.54 |
| 11/12/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 14/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 19/05/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 01/06/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 10/08/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 28/08/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 16/09/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |