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9

New Bay Star

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 67

Nottingham · Hospitality At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap · 1m 2f 50y

#12

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Still finding his feet for this yard and probably wasn't suited by drop back to 1m at Yarmouth last time. Return to this trip should suit and stable has shown better signs of form lately.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Yarmouth 18/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 1m1f21y GS 13118/0955 @ Bath 09/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 1m Goo 1335 @ Redcar 27/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 1m1f Goo 13027/1055 @ Chelmsford City 11/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 74 · 1m2f Std 133 · beat its mark11/12/2025 · OR 74 par3 @ Newcastle 09/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 74 · 1m2f42y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/01/2026 · OR 74 par9/013OR 743 @ Kempton 21/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 74 · 1m2f219y Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/01/2026 · OR 74 parC8 @ Galway 29/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 74 · 1m4f43y Yie 155 · below its mark29/07/2026 · OR 74 par29/07C8OR 745 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 72 · 1m3f23y Std 131 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Yarmouth 17/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 69 · 1m3y Gd 135 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 69 par17/095OR 69projClass-projected finish: 13th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Yarmouth510th10th0
2026-08-31Southwell56th6th0
2026-07-29Galway?11th15th−3
2026-01-21Kempton32nd0th+2
2026-01-09Newcastle33rd1st+2
2025-12-11Chelmsford City52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0911/1229/0717/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength15%

Delivery trend +3.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/20256th8/158%50%-0.08
09/10/20253rd10/382%78%-0.05
27/10/20254th17/255%50%-0.05
11/12/20252nd3/184%86%+0.02
09/01/20263rd5/287%33%-0.54
21/01/20262nd3/184%67%-0.18
29/07/202611th28/10%41%+0.41
31/08/20266th14/126%17%-0.10
17/09/202610th20/10%31%+0.31