Public Enemy
5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 68
Nottingham · Hospitality At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap · 1m 2f 50y
#14
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Taunton | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-06 | Plumpton | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-09 | Taunton | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Exeter | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-05-31 | Stratford | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 06/04/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 21/04/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 31/05/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 29/10/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 23/11/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 09/03/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 06/04/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |