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13

Roman Secret

5yo Mare · 9-1 · OR 57

Nottingham · Hospitality At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap · 1m 2f 50y

#10

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Twice a winner on all-weather this year, including since joining this yard when beating subsequent winner at Lingfield in August. Not so good back on turf last time but that was in a better grade and she has made the frame on 4 of her 5 starts at this track so isn't without hope.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Nottingham 07/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 56 · 1m2f50y Goo 131 · beat its mark07/08/2025 · OR 56 par7/085OR 565 @ Epsom Downs 11/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 56 · 1m2f17y Goo 122 · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 56 par6 @ Lingfield 14/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 55 · 1m4f Std 135 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 55 par14/106OR 556 @ Wolverhampton 17/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 53 · 1m1f104y Std 133 · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Southwell 30/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 56 · 1m3f23y Std 132 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 56 par30/046OR 566 @ Wolverhampton 02/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 56 · 1m1f104y Std 131 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Wolverhampton 14/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 55 · 1m4f51y Std 140 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 55 par14/076OR 556 @ Lingfield 11/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 54 · 1m2f Std 135 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 54 par4 @ Leicester 08/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 57 · 1m2f GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 57 par8/094OR 57projClass-projected finish: 5th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Leicester45th4th+1
2026-08-11Lingfield61st2nd−1
2026-07-14Wolverhampton68th9th−1
2026-06-02Wolverhampton63rd4th−1
2026-04-30Southwell66th7th−1
2026-04-17Wolverhampton61st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0817/0414/078/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 3-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength27%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/08/20253rd9/276%71%-0.05
11/09/20256th5/174%50%-0.24
14/10/20257th15/261%60%-0.01
17/04/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
30/04/20266th9/153%29%-0.24
02/06/20263rd17/255%80%+0.25
14/07/20268th6/168%22%-0.46
11/08/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
08/09/20265th66/10%33%+0.33