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10

Taradif

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 67

Nottingham · Hospitality At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap · 1m 2f 50y

#7

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Not long with yard and produced creditable third of 7 over 1m at Doncaster in August. Didn't appeal as well treated when sixth of 9 at Southwell last time, though, and now steps up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Vichy 25/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS25/07C5C5 @ Saint-Malo 18/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 1m208y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS18/08C5C5 @ Deauville 29/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 6f101y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS29/01C5C0 @ Chantilly 19/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 6f211y Std 11819/02C?5 @ Wolverhampton 28/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 71 · 1m1f104y Std 133 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 71 par28/065OR 715 @ Doncaster 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 70 · 7f213y GF 135 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 70 par15/085OR 705 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 69 · 1m13y Std 134 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 69 par31/085OR 69projClass-projected finish: 8th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Southwell56th6th0
2026-08-15Doncaster53rd3rd0
2026-06-28Wolverhampton57th7th0
2026-02-19Chantilly?8th8th0
2026-01-29Deauville?5th4th+1
2025-08-18Saint-Malo?8th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0719/0231/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength93%

Delivery trend +17.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/07/20254th3/184%67%-0.18
18/08/20258th5/493%22%-0.71
29/01/20265th15/261%56%-0.05
19/02/20268th2/189%30%-0.59
28/06/20267th100/10%33%+0.33
15/08/20263rd22/10%67%+0.67
31/08/20266th25/10%38%+0.38