IvyArcIvyArc
11

Why Not Me

4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 60

Nottingham · Hospitality At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap · 1m 2f 50y

#8

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well-bred filly but she's gone the wrong way from her second on debut last year, including when checking out of things tamely over this trip on turf debut at Ripon last time. Hard to be sure what to expect on handicap debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 27/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR - · 7f Std 12827/1154 @ Wolverhampton 18/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 1m1f104y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS18/0844 @ Ripon 31/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR - · 1m2f190y GS 131 · HIGHER CLASS31/084projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Ripon43rd2nd+1
2026-08-18Wolverhampton44th3rd+1
2025-11-27Chelmsford City52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1118/0831/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength63%

Delivery trend +5.7% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/11/20252nd11/271%67%-0.04
18/08/20264th15/261%40%-0.21
31/08/20263rd14/126%33%+0.07