10
Act Of Violence
5yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 63
Nottingham · Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap · 6f 18y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Leicester | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | Leicester | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Newmarket | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ripon | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Chepstow | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-01-22 | Southwell | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1571% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength76%
Delivery trend +6.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/11/2025 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 55% | -0.35 |
| 08/12/2025 | 9th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 27/12/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 44% | +0.02 |
| 22/01/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 90% | -0.02 |
| 21/09/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 73% | -0.19 |