9
Cairdeas
4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 65
Nottingham · Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap · 6f 18y
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Southwell | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Southwell | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 5 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Nottingham | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Ripon | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Doncaster | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1529% of fieldRange 7-15 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 11th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 73% | +0.67 |
| 25/09/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 62% | +0.35 |
| 14/10/2025 | 12th | 5/1 | 74% | 15% | -0.58 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 18/5 | 81% | 75% | -0.06 |
| 27/07/2026 | 12th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 31/08/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 18% | -0.08 |