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11

Crystal Dagger

4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 62

Nottingham · Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap · 6f 18y

#15

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Yet to win in 13 starts and hasn't shown much for current yard, but she hasn't tried turf yet this year and she's actually finished runner-up on all 3 outings on this surface which at least gives her some hope with first-time visor applied even if they weren't the strongest contests.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Redcar 27/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 69 · 7f Goo 128 · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 69 par27/105OR 695 @ Southwell 28/11/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 69 · 6f16y Std 134 · below its mark28/11/2025 · OR 69 par4 @ Lingfield 31/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 64 · 7f1y Std 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/12/2025 · OR 64 par31/124OR 645 @ Lingfield 14/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 65 · 7f1y Std 125 · beat its mark14/01/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Southwell 10/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 64 · 6f16y Std 129 · beat its mark10/03/2026 · OR 64 par10/035OR 646 @ Wolverhampton 17/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 64 · 7f36y Std 134 · below its mark17/03/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Wolverhampton 21/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 62 · 6f20y Std 134 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 62 par21/045OR 625 @ Southwell 05/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 60 · 7f14y Std 125 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 57 · 6f20y Std 127 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 57 par21/076OR 57projClass-projected finish: 14th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-21Wolverhampton68th9th−1
2026-07-05Southwell58th8th0
2026-04-21Wolverhampton54th4th0
2026-03-17Wolverhampton68th9th−1
2026-03-10Southwell56th6th0
2026-01-14Lingfield55th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1014/0121/0421/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 150% of fieldRange 7-15 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength17%

Delivery trend +0.3% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 15th of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/10/20252nd10/382%67%-0.16
28/11/202511th33/10%0%0.00
31/12/20252nd28/10%80%+0.80
14/01/20265th12/137%43%+0.06
10/03/20266th40/10%50%+0.50
17/03/20268th16/116%13%-0.03
21/04/20264th8/158%40%-0.18
05/07/20268th33/10%13%+0.13
21/07/20268th28/10%30%+0.30