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Havanagreattime

5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 70

Nottingham · Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap · 6f 18y

#8

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful sort at best but has struggled in 4 runs since sold from Richard Hughes. Tumbling down the grades but hard to fancy at present.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 3 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.4 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Windsor 12/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 90 · 6f12y GF 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/05/2025 · OR 90 par12/053OR 903 @ Windsor 16/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 90 · 6f12y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/06/2025 · OR 90 par2 @ Windsor 30/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 90 · 6f12y GF 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/06/2025 · OR 90 par30/062OR 902 @ Windsor 11/08/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 89 · 6f12y GF 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/08/2025 · OR 89 par4 @ Kempton 05/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 87 · 7f Sta 137 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/09/2025 · OR 87 par5/094OR 876 @ Wolverhampton 30/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 83 · 6f20y Std 134 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ Wolverhampton 18/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 78 · 7f36y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/08/2026 · OR 78 par18/084OR 785 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 75 · 7f15y Std 140 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Wolverhampton 18/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 73 · 7f36y Std 138 · below its mark18/09/2026 · OR 73 par18/095OR 73projClass-projected finish: 15th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Wolverhampton512th12th0
2026-09-02Newcastle58th8th0
2026-08-18Wolverhampton49th8th+1
2026-07-30Wolverhampton611th12th−1
2025-09-05Kempton49th8th+1
2025-08-11Windsor212th8th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0511/0818/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1543% of fieldRange 8-15 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength24%

Delivery trend +7.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/05/20257th7/282%33%-0.48
16/06/20252nd10/382%80%-0.02
30/06/20257th9/153%0%-0.53
11/08/202512th12/137%0%-0.37
05/09/20259th11/142%27%-0.15
30/07/202611th20/10%0%0.00
18/08/20269th125/10%0%0.00
02/09/20268th50/10%36%+0.36
18/09/202612th80/10%0%0.00