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8

Imelda

3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 66

Nottingham · Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap · 6f 18y

#11

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Promise when third at Chester in maiden that has worked out well in May but not so encouraging in handicaps next 2 starts at same track so hard to be too positive about now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.6
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 04/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 7f36y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS4/0445 @ Wolverhampton 27/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 7f36y Std 12227/0454 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 7f1y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS30/0545 @ Chester 10/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 70 · 7f1y Goo 134 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 70 par10/075OR 705 @ Chester 11/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 69 · 7f1y Goo 128 · below its mark11/09/2026 · OR 69 par11/095OR 69projClass-projected finish: 6th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Chester511th11th0
2026-07-10Chester54th4th0
2026-05-30Chester43rd2nd+1
2026-04-27Wolverhampton53rd3rd0
2026-04-04Wolverhampton42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0427/0430/0510/0711/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1514% of fieldRange 8-15 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength12%

Delivery trend -8.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/04/20262nd12/137%86%+0.49
27/04/20263rd11/142%80%+0.38
30/05/20263rd18/15%80%+0.75
10/07/20264th9/153%67%+0.14
11/09/202611th25/10%17%+0.17