4
Ingleby Archie
5yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 68
Nottingham · Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap · 6f 18y
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Pontefract | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Redcar | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Hamilton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Nottingham | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Hamilton | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1564% of fieldRange 6-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength29%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |
| 21/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 22/08/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 30% | -0.49 |
| 17/09/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 45% | +0.19 |