15
Melissa Honey
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 58
Nottingham · Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap · 6f 18y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
95%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength50%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Newcastle | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-11 | Nottingham | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Leicester | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Leicester | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Pontefract | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Doncaster | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 28/04/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 90% | -0.01 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/11 | 96% | 33% | -0.63 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 19/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |