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12

Perineighs

3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 63

Nottingham · Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap · 6f 18y

#14

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Third at Nottingham over 5f this time last year and produced best effort since when fourth of 14 in a handicap at Newcastle over 6f on all-weather 26 days ago, though appeared to have every chance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Nottingham 04/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 5f8y Gd 1284/0652 @ Chester 14/06/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 6f17y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Carlisle 09/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 5f182y Sft 1269/0955 @ Wolverhampton 20/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 68 · 5f21y Std 125 · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 68 par5 @ Nottingham 29/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 68 · 5f8y Sft 133 · beat its mark29/10/2025 · OR 68 par29/105OR 685 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 67 · 6f Gd 130 · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 65 · 5f Sta 131 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 65 par31/075OR 655 @ Newcastle 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 64 · 6f Std 129 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 64 par5/095OR 64projClass-projected finish: 9th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Newcastle54th4th0
2026-07-31Newcastle59th9th0
2026-06-05Thirsk511th11th0
2025-10-29Nottingham53rd3rd0
2025-10-20Wolverhampton54th4th0
2025-09-09Carlisle54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0620/1031/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1550% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength81%

Delivery trend +6.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/06/20254th125/10%67%+0.67
14/06/20259th11/142%11%-0.31
09/09/20254th11/271%67%-0.04
20/10/20254th14/126%25%-0.01
29/10/20253rd28/10%75%+0.75
05/06/202611th25/10%17%+0.17
31/07/20269th33/10%27%+0.27
05/09/20264th25/10%77%+0.77