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5

Royal Accord

4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 67

Nottingham · Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap · 6f 18y

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 4 times in 2025 for Stuart Williams and, though he's largely struggled for this yard this year, his last couple of outings have given more hope and he's now dipped below his last winning mark. Could make more impact if starting better than he did last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Brighton 08/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 65 · 6f210y GF 132 · beat its mark08/07/2025 · OR 65 par8/076OR 656 @ Leicester 23/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 65 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark23/07/2025 · OR 65 par5 @ Newmarket 15/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 69 · 6f GF 135 · beat its mark15/08/2025 · OR 69 par15/085OR 695 @ Wolverhampton 04/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 74 · 7f36y Std 137 · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 74 par5 @ Lingfield 14/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 74 · 6f1y Std 134 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 74 par14/105OR 744 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 18th of 18 · OR 74 · 7f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Newmarket 07/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 72 · 6f GF 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 72 par7/084OR 724 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 69 · 6f Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Wolverhampton 26/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 69 · 6f20y Std 137 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 69 par26/085OR 69projClass-projected finish: 7th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Wolverhampton53rd3rd0
2026-08-22Newmarket47th6th+1
2026-08-07Newmarket49th8th+1
2026-07-24York418th17th+1
2025-10-14Lingfield52nd2nd0
2025-10-04Wolverhampton57th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/074/107/0826/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1586% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength85%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/07/20255th11/486%43%-0.43
23/07/20252nd13/266%89%+0.23
15/08/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
04/10/20257th18/15%33%+0.28
14/10/20252nd20/10%88%+0.88
24/07/202618th28/10%0%0.00
07/08/20269th66/10%11%+0.11
22/08/20267th80/10%50%+0.50
26/08/20263rd13/266%71%+0.06