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13

Thunderous Love

5yo Mare · 9-4 · OR 62

Nottingham · Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap · 6f 18y

#2

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual C&D winner who has looked back in good form 3 of last 4 starts, including when runner-up to Melissa Honey at this track in August, looking a little unlucky not to win. Those races are working out reasonably well and she looks likely to prove competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ascot 09/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR 71 · 6f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 71 par9/054OR 715 @ Lingfield 26/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 70 · 7f Goo 130 · below its mark26/05/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Goodwood 05/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 70 · 6f Goo 138 · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 70 par5/065OR 705 @ Salisbury 09/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 68 · 6f Sft 128 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Newbury 09/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 65 · 6f GF 137 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 65 par9/075OR 655 @ Salisbury 25/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 62 · 6f Goo 132 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Nottingham 11/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 62 · 6f18y Goo 132 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 62 par11/085OR 625 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 63 · 6f16y Std 128 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Yarmouth 16/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 62 · 6f3y Goo 130 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 62 par16/095OR 62projClass-projected finish: 4th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Yarmouth54th4th0
2026-08-31Southwell59th9th0
2026-08-11Nottingham52nd2nd0
2026-07-25Salisbury52nd2nd0
2026-07-09Newbury59th9th0
2026-06-09Salisbury56th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/059/0611/0816/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength57%

Delivery trend +3.3% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/05/20267th14/126%65%+0.38
26/05/20266th9/276%17%-0.60
05/06/20269th4/179%11%-0.68
09/06/20266th10/382%44%-0.38
09/07/20269th15/261%27%-0.33
25/07/20262nd15/261%89%+0.28
11/08/20262nd15/890%80%-0.10
31/08/20269th8/158%27%-0.31
16/09/20264th9/153%73%+0.20