Tiriac
6yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 66
Nottingham · Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap · 6f 18y
#13
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Doncaster | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-30 | Beverley | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Hamilton | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Newcastle | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 4 | 17th | 16th | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thirsk | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 27/03/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 27% | +0.01 |
| 15/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 16/05/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 23/05/2026 | 17th | 22/1 | 0% | 16% | +0.16 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 64% | -0.02 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 30/08/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 64% | -0.21 |
| 13/09/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |