14
Trafalger
5yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 60
Nottingham · Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap · 6f 18y
#12
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Bath | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-24 | Windsor | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Chepstow | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Windsor | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Yarmouth | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Bath | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1557% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 11/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 12/09/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 30/09/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 85% | +0.19 |
| 13/10/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 29/06/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 33% | -0.22 |
| 24/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |