3
Foggy Bar Blues
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 62
Presque Isle Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +14.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 15/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |