5
On Reserve
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 76
Presque Isle Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength35%
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 09/01/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 24/01/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 01/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 11/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 14/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |