3
Underappreciated
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 90
Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
86%
Place Prob
70%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength92%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 01/03/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 11/04/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 29/04/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 14/09/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |