3
Nuts And Bolts
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 88
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
94%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-07-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength62%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 06/03/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 11/04/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |