Risk And Regret
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 84
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 17/10/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 82% | +0.16 |
| 02/11/2025 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 36% | -0.32 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 90% | +0.32 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 89% | -0.01 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 21/08/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |