4
Storm Bay
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 85
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength28%
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 28/12/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 29/03/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 30% | -0.31 |
| 28/05/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 40% | -0.52 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 10/09/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |